900 Football Links is a web site that has been around since 2000. It is best known for its coverage of the NFL Draft. For the second year, 900 Football Links has published a Pro Football Preseason Preview. This year there is much more information in the Preview than there was last year. One such item is the Draft Value Index.
My in-depth draft report cards for each team comes with a list of players drafted, the top undrafted college street free agents signed, workout numbers for those players, a notation for players that popped at the Senior Bowl and/or East West Shrine Game, a write up with grade, and my new Draft Value Index.
The purpose of the Draft Value Index is to present a draft grade for each team that eliminates my personal likes and dislikes.
Here is how the Draft Value Index works:
I set a numeric value for each round of the draft. I then added up the total value of the picks in the draft for each team. I called that total the points available. Next, using my player grades (as listed on 900 Football Links web site) and the same point system, I added up the total points that each team accumulated with their selections in the draft. I called that total the points drafted. Then, for my “base value” I divided the points drafted by the points available. An index of 1.0 meant that that team netted the value expected in the draft. The higher the base index, the better value that team received.
However, I didn’t stop there. I added in the undrafted college street free agent signings. However, only players who had a fifth round or better value from me earned points. I next decided that the undrafted college street free agents should, at most have a .15 (15% on an index of 1.0) impact on the Draft Value Index. Therefore I set 5 point ranges. So the undrafted college street free agent signings could impact the “base value” with one of these 5 numeric values: -.15, -.075, 0, +.075, +.15.
Not entirely satisfied, I wanted to add in whether or not a team addressed its needs with its drafted players. To keep my personal opinions of the teams’ existing rosters out of the equation, I used the team needs contained on each team’s draft page at NFL.com as the data set for this portion of my Draft Value Index. Once again I created a range of +/- to add to the “base value.” This time it was +.1 if a team filled all needs; 0 if a team filled all needs but one; -.1 if a team did not fill two or more needs as indicated at NFL.com. So:
Draft Value Index = Base Value +/- undrafted free agents factor +/- team needs factor
Now, here are some of the results. The top four are:
Philadelphia 1.56 (six players with a third round value or better)
Pittsburgh 1.53 (seven players with a fourth round value or better)
Seattle 1.50 (good value up and down its board)
Cincinnati 1.45 (three first round values, excellent value late in the draft)
In terms of my grade, I had Philadelphia fourth amongst these teams, although they all earned good grades. The grades are:
If you would like to see more teams’ grades and indecies, or to read about the analyses of these four teams, as well as the other 28 teams; that content is contained in 900 Football Links’ 2013 Pro Football Draft Recap and Fantasy Football and Season Preview. If you go to http://www.900FootballLinks.NET, there is a coupon code for $3.00 off if you purchase the Preview at the book’s official web page. The Preview is also available at Amazon and, soon, at other Internet booksellers.
Note – Jay Goldberg is lead analyst for 900 Football Links.